China’s grand strategy in the Xi Jinping era: driving factors and trajectory

Abstract

China’s grand strategy of “Peaceful Development” has undergone a gradual adjustment, reflected in China’s foreign policy shift from a pragmatic to a more proactive and assertive approach. This study seeks to answer key questions: What factors have driven this adjustment? How have these factors interacted during Xi Jinping’s era? To what extent does the “Chinese Dream” grand strategy represent a rupture from the principles of “Peaceful Development”? To address these questions, the study develops a synthetic and multi-level analytical framework that identifies the systemic and domestic factors driving the adjustment. The research employs a qualitative methodology based on document analysis and triangulation of primary and secondary sources, providing insights into how China’s “core interests” and the means to achieve them are articulated. The findings indicate that the adjustment of the grand strategy has been driven by the interaction and feedback between systemic and domestic factors, resulting in a stronger Chinese leadership and a more assertive foreign policy. While the “Chinese Dream” marks a shift in the strategic means, it does not represent a complete rupture from the guiding principles of “Peaceful Development”, but rather an adaptation to new global circumstances and China’s growing power aspirations.