The war in Ukraine and the consolidation of tripolar rivalry in the international nuclear order: U.S., Russia, and China

Abstract

This article analyzes the impact of the Ukrainian war on the international nuclear order, focusing on the US-China competition on the balance of nuclear power. It also examines the other countries known as the “P-5 of the NPT”: Russia, the United Kingdom and France. Addressing the research question of how the war in Ukraine impacts the international nuclear order, the study employs an analytical framework that integrates elements of offensive realism with an approach to the international order rooted in three interrelated factors: power, ideas, and institutions, articulating the latter with the concept of international regime. Methodologically, the article adopts a qualitative approach, combining the analysis of up-to-date primary and secondary sources. This analytical process encompasses coding, categorization, and thematic analysis, aimed at identifying the elements that articulates the international nuclear order. The article concludes that the war in Ukraine consolidates the tripolarity in the contemporary nuclear order. The U.S. superpower must now contend with China and Russia and redouble its efforts to maintain the balance of nuclear power in regions where this rivalry intensifies: Europe and Asia-Pacific.